It’s England against Spain this week in the Champions League as Manchester United host Sevilla at Old Trafford and Barcelona entertain Chelsea 24 hours later at the Camp Nou.
Both ties are even stevens after the first leg, and while United and Barça will be favoured to make home advantage count, both clubs know that the concession of an away goal is likely to make for an uncomfortable evening, especially if they haven’t already opened the scoring themselves.
Elsewhere, there is everything to play for in Rome as Shakhtar visit Roma with a 2-1 lead from the first leg, but virtually nothing on the line in Istanbul, where the likelihood of Beşiktaş overturning a 5-0 deficit against serial quarter-finalists Bayern Munich is about on a par with Jamie Carragher venturing out to watch the game in a Manchester pub.
With Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City and holders Real Madrid already through, and Bayern 99.99% certain to join them, the quarter-final line-up has a powerful and attractive look to it. Should United, Barcelona and Roma all do the business at home this week, the field will be arguably the strongest the Champions League has ever had at that stage of the competition.
But there is a bit of football to play before that happens…
Read below to see how I foresee things panning out as the round of 16 finally draws to a close – a month and a day after it started.
Tuesday – MANCHESTER UNITED (0) v SEVILLA (0)
A nervous evening awaits José Mourinho’s side. Sevilla were no great shakes in the first leg, and they went down 2-0 at home to Valencia at the weekend, but the Andalusians’ eagerness to make history and reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time guarantees that they will be full of fight and endeavour.
Sevilla blew it last season at this stage of the competition against another Premier League club, Leicester City, in a high-voltage atmosphere at the King Power Stadium, missing two penalties in a tie they lost 3-2 on aggregate. Theoretically, United pose a tougher test of their credentials, but it will be up to the (often mute) Old Trafford crowd to get behind their team, as Leicester’s fans did, and roar them to victory. For a win, in one form or another, is the only result that will take United through – even if that means outscoring their visitors in a penalty shoot-out.
Saturday’s success against Liverpool will have given United and their followers plenty of encouragement, but Mourinho’s hard-to-love outfit will have to be equally efficient in both attack and defence to see off Sevilla. It promises to be engaging, tense and very, very close.
Prediction: United scraped through at home against several Europa League adversaries last season, including another Spanish club, Celta Vigo. I foresee an encore. 2-1
Tuesday – ROMA (1) v SHAKHTAR DONETSK (2)
A 2-1 scoreline from the first leg of any European tie almost always ensures a captivating return. And there should be plenty of drama at the Stadio Olimpico as Roma seek a first quarter-final spot in a decade and Shakhtar look to repeat the victory they achieved in the Italian capital the last time they faced the Giallorossi in the last 16,in 2010/11, when a 3-2 win paved the way for a convincing 6-2 aggregate trumph.
While it seems likely that the winner of this tie will be the team the other seven in the quarter-final draw all secretly hope to face, both clubs are currently on a decent run of form. Roma’s last two Serie A games have brought them six points and seven goals, the first of them a magnificent 4-2 win at then table-toppers Napoli, while Shakhtar have won all five of their matches this year, scoring 18 goals and conceding just the one – Roma’s potentially crucial opener, from Cengiz Ünder, three weeks ago in Kharkiv.
Prediction: This tie is extremely tough to call. Roma should win the game, but will it be enough? It could be a long evening in Rome. 2-1 (Roma on penalties)
Wednesday – BARCELONA (1) v CHELSEA (1)
Lionel Messi’s 75th-minute equaliser at Stamford Bridge turned this tie on its head. Instead of bringing to Barcelona the 1-0 lead that their first-leg performance merited, Chelsea know they will probably have to score at least twice to stand a chance of making the quarter-finals.
Barça seldom draw blanks in their Camp Nou citadel, but they do tend to struggle there against Chelsea. Remarkably, the west Londoners have drawn on each of their last four visits, twice by the 2-2 scoreline that will have them celebrating another famous qualification – as in the 2012 semi-final – should they be able to repeat it this week. In fact, Chelsea have gone a remarkable eight games without defeat against Barcelona, a curiosity which is fast becoming something of a Catalan curse.
Barcelona have not lost in La Liga this season – 22 wins and six draws – and, like Manchester City, Bayern and maybe soon Juventus, can afford to throw everything at the Champions League in their bid to dethrone the dreaded Real Madrid. The Camp Nou spectators will undoubtedly be at their noisiest and nastiest for this one – whistling and jeering every minor decision that does not go their team’s way – and the unrelenting hostility will test both Chelsea and the Slovenian referee Damir Skomina, who also happened to be in charge at the same venue when Barça demolished Juventus 3-0 in the opening game of this season’s group stage.
Prediction: Barça to dominate but Chelsea to remain valiantly in contention until a controversial penalty – converted by Messi – settles the outcome. 2-1
Wednesday – BEŞIKTAŞ (0) v BAYERN MUNICH (5)
How much will Bayern put into this? With the Bundesliga set to be wrapped up very soon – perhaps as early as this coming weekend – they have no priorities elsewhere, but as four of their players are one further yellow card away from missing the first leg of the quarter-final – among them Polish sniper supreme Robert Lewandowski – Jupp Heynckes might not feel inclined to send out his very best starting XI.
Beşiktaş did well to win their group, but after new signing Domagoj Vida was sent off early on in Munich, they were always likely to cop a heavy defeat. The second leg offers them a chance to beat Bayern on their own patch, but, barring a miracle, they won’t get remotely close to jeopardising their visitors’ safe passage to the last eight for the seventh year in a row.
Prediction: Bayern won’t want to lose, and should do enough to deny their hosts a farewell victory. 2-2
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