The UEFA Europa League is a trophy worth winning – just ask José Mourinho and any follower of Manchester United – but there is a growing feeling that this season’s competition is not much more than a Champions League repechage.
Of the teams contesting the Europa League round of 32 – which kicked off with a dreary 0-0 draw between Red Star Belgrade and CSKA on Tuesday and continues with the other 15 first legs on Thursday – more than half actually began their 2017/18 European campaign at various junctures of the Champions League.
Needless to say, eight of them crossed over during the winter after finishing third in their Champions League group, but another ten preceded them by swapping competitions at various stages of last summer’s qualifying process. That leaves only 14 survivors from the Europa League’s original cast of 157.
Among the teams that have made it – via various avenues – to the Europa League knockout phase are seven reigning domestic champions, eight current league leaders and six former champions of Europe. Celtic happen to fit into all three of those categories, but, like 27 of their fellow participants in the round of 32, they have never lifted the UEFA Cup/Europa League trophy.
The only four of the remaining participants to have done so are Napoli (1988/89), CSKA Moscow (2004/05) and Celtic’s opponents Zenit (2007/08 – when they beat Rangers in the final) – all in the UEFA Cup – plus double Europa League winners Atlético Madrid (2009/10 and 2011/12).
Atlético, who have stolen so many big clubs’ thunder in recent Champions League campaigns, are doubtless feeling a bit left out as the other four clubs to have captured the Europa League – Porto, Chelsea, three-time winners Sevilla and holders Manchester United – are all still going strong in UEFA’s flagship club competition. On the positive side, though, the only other time Atlético failed to qualify from their Champions League group, in 2009/10, they went on to win the inaugural Europa League, beating Fulham 2-1 in the Hamburg final.
Atlético are one of four Spanish teams still involved in a competition that La Liga clubs have dominated (five wins out of eight). There are four too from Italy and Russia, plus three from France (Ligue 1’s best return yet at this stage), but only one from England (an all-time low), with Arsenal carrying the Premier League flag alone following Everton’s dismal efforts in the group stage.
With their hopes of re-qualifying for next season’s Champions League via the Premier League’s top four now hanging by a fraying thread, Arsène Wenger’s side must target Europa League victory in the same way that Mourinho’s United did – with success – last year. Sweden’s European debutants Östersund should be swatted aside with ease in what appears to be a complete mismatch, but elsewhere the round of 32 draw has thrown up some evenly-balanced ties that are very difficult to call.
That said, here are my game-by-game predictions for Thursday’s first legs (I also thought Red Star v CSKA would be a 0-0 draw, but I can understand if you don’t believe me…).
Astana v Sporting
The first Kazakh club to reach a European knockout phase, Astana, who won their domestic title for the fourth year running in the autumn, clinched their place with a fortuitous smash-and-grab win at Slavia Prague. Sporting, who don’t generally travel well in Europe, must fly nearly 4,000 miles for this one. Prediction: 2-1
Borussia Dortmund v Atalanta
Dortmund haven’t won a European game this season – they plundered just two points from their Champions League group (the minimum possible to take third place) – and Atalanta haven’t lost one. New Dortmund coach Peter Stöger has another go at this competition having overseen Cologne’s elimination in the group stage. Prediction: 2-1
Nice v Lokomotiv Moscow
Nice have never played so many European matches in one campaign but Mario Balotelli and co are not currently having much fun in Ligue 1, whereas Lokomotiv, albeit still in domestic hibernation, boast an eight-point lead in the Russian top flight, their 70-year-old coach Yuri Semin clearly relishing his fourth spell in charge. Prediction: 1-1
Spartak Moscow v Athletic Bilbao
The Russian champions’ last European fixture was a 7-0 thrashing at Anfield – their heaviest defeat in Europe – and although the bitter cold of a February evening in Moscow will not be to Athletic’s liking, they are on a roll of three successive Europa League victories, with veteran goal-getter Aritz Aduriz having scored in all of them. Prediction: 2-2
Real Sociedad v Salzburg
The Basque club are struggling in La Liga (down in 14th place – the lowest current domestic league position of all 32 Europa League participants) and lost at home in this competition last time out to Zenit (1-3), while Salzburg are on course for a fifth successive Austrian Bundesliga title and conceded just one goal in the group stage. Prediction: 1-1
Ludogorets v Milan
The perennial Bulgarian champions (six titles in a row and counting…) knocked out Lazio at this stage four years ago, but Milan have won all five previous ties against Bulgarian opposition and are going well in Serie A under new boss Gennaro Gattuso. This is the only major European trophy the
Rossoneri have never won. Prediction: 0-2
Östersund v Arsenal
The team from central Sweden have performed wonders under their unsung English coach Graham Potter (no, I hadn’t heard of him until recently, either), rocketing up the divisions, winning the Swedish Cup and becoming the first club from their country to reach this round of 32. Arsenal will not fancy the cold but if Wenger puts out a strong team – and why wouldn’t he? – they should win comfortably. Prediction: 1-3
Marseille v Braga
These two clubs shared home wins when they last met in the 2015/16 Europa League group stage. Both went through then, but of course that can’t happen now, and with Marseille having performed well at the Stade Vélodrome so far in this campaign and Braga clean sheet-less in their last 22 European fixtures, a home win beckons. Prediction: 3-1
FC Copenhagen v Atlético Madrid
The Danish champions are unlikely to retain their title but they know how to defend at home in Europe, conceding no goals in any of their group games at Parken. Atlético pose a different level of threat, however, and have won five and drawn one of their six games in La Liga since the turn of the year, with Antoine Griezmann ominously finding form. Prediction: 0-1
AEK Athens v Dynamo Kiev
AEK are the top dogs in Greece at the moment, having recently beaten serial champions Olympiacos in both league and cup. They drew their way into this phase of the Europa League, sharing the points in five of their six matches, while Dynamo were the first team to clinch their round of 32 ticket. It could be a close one. Prediction: 0-0
Celtic v Zenit
So much for Celtic Park being a ‘European fortress’. Scotland’s finest have not won any of their last 11 group stage or knockout phase fixtures there, and they lost all three of their home Champions League group games this season. Zenit, though inactive competitively since early December, have decent continental pedigree and are coached by Roberto Mancini, who was also the Inter boss when they knocked Celtic out of the round of 32 on the Bhoys’ last appearance, in 2014/15. Prediction: 1-2
Napoli v RB Leipzig
The only tie pitting together two Champions League group stage outcasts, it is potentially the tie of the round – if only because Napoli are top of Serie A and Leipzig are currently second in the Bundesliga – albeit at an uncompetitive distance behind runaway leaders Bayern Munich. Dries Mertens is suspended, but would he have played anyway? Prediction: 2-0
Lyon v Villarreal
Semi-finalists last season, Lyon have every incentive to go one step further in 2017/18 as their stadium will host the final. Villarreal, who have played more Europa League games, posted more wins and scored more goals than any other club, will be a tough nut to crack. Their recent away record in Europe is almost as good as Lyon’s at home. Prediction: 2-1
Partizan Belgrade v Viktoria Plzeň
Like city rivals Red Star, Partizan have never played more matches in a single European campaign, this being their 13th of 2017/18. Viktoria Plzeň won their last three group games and went into the Czech league winter break with a mammoth lead, having dropped just two points in 16 matches. But can they recapture that momentum? Prediction: 2-2
Steaua Bucharest v Lazio
Now known officially as ‘FCSB’ following a legal dispute, Steaua (to you and me) have a wretched record against Italian clubs, with no wins in 13 games and – wait for it – no goals in 12 of those. Lazio have stuttered of late domestically but have a strong away record in the Europa League and should maintain that in Bucharest. Prediction: 0-1
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