Unlike the Champions League, which tends to have pretty much the same teams competing in its latter stages year on year, the Europa League has an ever-changing congregation.
This season, for example, only one of the teams that participated in the 2016/17 round of 16 has returned – Lyon, the host club of this season’s final. Four clubs have never featured at this stage of the competition before, and that quartet includes heavyweight duo AC Milan and Arsenal, who just happen to have been drawn against each other in what we can safely call the tie of the round.
Not that the other seven lack appeal. Far from it. Only four of the remaining 16 clubs have never appeared in a European final – Viktoria Plzeň, Lokomotiv Moscow, European newbies RB Leipzig and, yes, Lyon – while the strong field contains three former Champions League winners in Milan, Borussia Dortmund and Marseille plus three that have lifted this trophy before – Russian pair CSKA Moscow and Zenit (when it was the UEFA Cup, in 2005 and 2008 respectively) and two-time Europa League winners (in 2010 and 2012) Atlético Madrid.
Not surprisingly, Atlético have been installed as the bookies’ favourites, although it could be argued that Diego Simeone’s team will not have quite the same incentive to win it as others given that they seem certain to qualify anyway for next season’s Champions League group stage – the much-coveted bonus prize on offer to the Europa League winners – via their domestic placing (probably as runners-up to Barcelona).
Other clubs currently in that bracket are Russian league leaders Lokomotiv, Dortmund (third in the Bundesliga) and Lazio (fourth in Serie A), while Czech champions-elect Plzeň (nine points clear at the moment with a game in hand) will, should they go on as expected to win the title, make it to the group stage if the winners of this season’s Champions League also qualify domestically. Marseille, third at present in Ligue 1, will likewise book a Champions League group stage berth if they hold their position and the 2017/18 Europa League winners are one of the above – i.e. qualified already through their league position.
Two clubs with next to no chance of claiming a domestic top-four spot this season are Milan and Arsenal. They have never won this trophy either. Milan still have the Coppa Italia to go for – they meet Juventus in the final – but for Arsène Wenger’s side, on the slide domestically, the Europa League has now assumed paramount importance. Success or failure in the competition from here on in will make or break their season.
Here’s my analysis of this week’s eight first-leg encounters with accompanying score predictions.
AC Milan v Arsenal
Four defeats on the trot – the first of them at home to Östersund in the last round – send the Gunners to northern Italy in a fragile state and with Wenger under fire from all quarters, notably the club’s own fans. Gennaro Gattuso’s Milan, conversely, are unbeaten in 13 games since Christmas with clean sheets in the last six. Prediction: 2-1
Borussia Dortmund v Salzburg
Dortmund are proving tough to beat under their new boss Peter Stöger, an Austrian who will evidently be keen to see off a team from his homeland led by… a German, Marco Rose. Salzburg have lost just once all season and are well on course for a fifth successive league title. They’ve also gone 17 games without defeat in Europe. Prediction: 2-1
CSKA Moscow v Lyon
Lyon did the double over Villarreal in the round of 32 and clearly have their heart set on playing in the final on home turf. Bruno Génésio’s team were beaten semi-finalists (by Ajax) in 2016/17 and, inspired by their very watchable skipper Nabil Fekir, should have the measure, over two legs, of a pretty average-looking CSKA side. Prediction: 1-2
Atlético Madrid v Lokomotiv Moscow
Atlético’s hopes of chasing down Barcelona in La Liga all but died with Sunday’s 1-0 defeat at the Camp Nou, so expect Simeone’s men to give some priority now to the Europa League as they target a record-equalling third victory. Lokomotiv look the best of the three Russian sides, but unfortunately they have the toughest draw. Prediction: 2-0
Sporting v Viktoria Plzeň
Like Atlético, Sporting’s defeat last Friday at league leaders Porto appears to have killed off their domestic title hopes, thus re-energising their efforts in the Europa League. Jorge Jesus lost two finals as Benfica boss so will be looking to make it third time lucky this year with Sporting. Plzeň have a canny coach of their own in Pavel Vrba. Prediction: 1-0
Marseille v Athletic Bilbao
Athletic prevailed when these two teams met in the round of 32 two years ago thanks to a stunning
goal from Aritz Aduriz in the Stade Vélodrome. Now 37, Aduriz is still the Basque club’s main man in attack and leads the Europa League scoring charts with seven goals. Marseille have been excellent at home in Europe this season. Prediction: 1-1
RB Leipzig v Zenit
Leipzig claimed the notable scalp of Napoli in the last round but lost the second leg 2-0 in Germany. Zenit have a formidable home record in this competition, and they needed to maintain it to get past Celtic after a tepid defeat in Glasgow. With their domestic season now up-and-running, Roberto Mancini’s men should avoid an encore. Prediction: 2-2
Lazio v Dynamo Kiev
Lazio became the first Italian team to win a Europa League knockout phase tie after losing the first leg when they eliminated Steaua Bucharest last time out. Dynamo, who edged past AEK Athens on the away goals rule and are six points behind leaders Shakhtar in their domestic league, offer a similar standard of opposition. Prediction: 3-1
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