The UEFA Champions League returns to centre stage this week with the first legs of the quarter-finals. We are now at what is often referred to as the ‘business end’ of the competition (though I’m not quite sure why) and four tasty fixtures await us, including a repeat of last season’s final and the competition’s first all-English tie for seven years.
Bayern Munich, who travel to Manchester United’s round of 16 conquerors Sevilla, and Barcelona, at home to Roma, will both fancy their chances of taking a large stride towards the semi-finals this week, while Manchester City, poised to be crowned champions of England at the weekend, should be able to stay in the tie – at the very least – against Liverpool at what will be a cacophonous Anfield. Juventus against Real Madrid is a real tough one to call, though, and it would be a big surprise if either side emerges from that superheavyweight clash with a sizeable advantage to take to the Bernabéu.
Here are my game-by-game previews and predictions:
Tuesday – JUVENTUS v REAL MADRID
I watched Juventus defeat AC Milan 3-1 on Saturday evening. For much of the game the visitors were the superior side, but they missed chances, struck the woodwork and Juve, being Juve, did what they always do and made them pay, scoring twice late on to claim the victory that puts them four points ahead of long-time leaders Napoli at the summit of Serie A.
The Bianconeri will win a seventh successive scudetto, I have no doubt. But can they land the big prize and conquer Europe for only the third time in their history? They looked shaky in the last round against Spurs but, in characteristic fashion, found a way to win. Barcelona were knocked out at this stage last season thanks to a sumptuous 3-0 first-leg win in Turin, and Max Allegri’s side will probably need a repeat performance – or something similar – to put the wind up a Real Madrid side that impressively swatted aside the pretenders of Paris Saint-Germain in the round of 16.
As ever, the key to beating Madrid is keeping Cristiano Ronaldo quiet. No team has done that in Europe for quite a while. He has scored in all eight Champions League games this season and has amassed the phenomenal haul of 22 goals in his last 13 matches in the competition, including that match-deciding double against Juventus in last season’s final.
Juve’s recent stats suggest that theirs is the best defence in Europe, but the same was said before that showdown in Cardiff, where Madrid routed them 4-1. It would be a feat and a half for them to keep a clean sheet against Ronaldo and co this week, but with Paulo Dybala – the scourge of Barça in last season’s quarter-final – now fully fit and in fine scoring form (five goals in his last six games), plus the fervent backing of the home crowd and a collective desire for revenge, they will surely find the net themselves.
Prediction: Juve know they need to win this, and they probably will but only just, and with the concession of a potentially damaging away goal to – in all probability – you know who. 2-1
Tuesday – SEVILLA v BAYERN MUNICH
Sevilla will still be kicking themselves for failing to end Barcelona’s invincible run in La Liga at the weekend. Two-nil up with a couple of minutes of normal time remaining, they let the Catalans off the hook and ended up drawing the game 2-2. It was a hugely disappointing outcome, but Vincenco Montella’s side will go into their second monster home game of the week buoyed by their overall performance.
Bayern are on the threshold of an unprecedented sixth successive Bundesliga title, their 6-0 thrashing of Borussia Dortmund on Saturday evening providing a perfect riposte to their unexpected 2-1 defeat at Leipzig a couple of weeks earlier.
So dominant in Munich, where they have racked up 14 goals in four Champions League fixtures this season, Bayern can probably afford to lose by two or three goals in Andalusia and still go into the second leg as favourites to reach the semi-finals. Spanish clubs have knocked the perennial German champions out in each of the past four seasons, but Sevilla are unlikely to follow the example set by Real Madrid (twice), Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.
Prediction: Sevilla get great support in the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, but it won’t be enough to keep
them in the tie. 1-2
Wednesday – LIVERPOOL v MANCHESTER CITY
I guess nobody really wanted this tie, but now it’s here, it should be one to savour. The Premier League’s two most enterprising and adventurous teams have the potential to serve up a European classic, and if the first leg is anything like as eventful as the teams’ January clash at Anfield, when Liverpool became the first – and as yet only – team to defeat Manchester City in the league this season, winning 4-3, no one of a neutral persuasion will be complaining.
Guardiola’s City have played mesmerising – and winning – football all season long, and they were at it again in overwhelming Everton at Goodison Park on Saturday, the 3-1 scoreline flattering a home team restricted to a paltry 18% possession. Liverpool fans will be fearful of a possible encore but will clearly gain strength and encouragement from that league meeting three months ago, when they saw their team roar into a remarkable 4-1 lead. Mo Salah is in ridiculously good form, the late winner he struck at Crystal Palace on Saturday being the 16th goal he has scored in his last 14 Liverpool appearances and his 29th for the Reds in the Premier League.
Salah is in a two-horse race with City’s Kevin De Bruyne for the Player of the Year/Footballer of the Year awards, and for those who have not yet cast their votes, the performances of the two protagonists in this tie could swing the outcome. The two managers, Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, are also in the spotlight. For them and for their teams, it doesn’t get any bigger than this.
Prediction: Will Guardiola advocate a greater degree of caution after that January defeat? Possibly. Will Klopp’s side go for all-out attack? Probably. Will it be absorbing from first minute to last? Definitely. 2-2
Wednesday – BARCELONA v ROMA
Barcelona have missed out on the semi-finals in each of the past two seasons, but it looks like it will be third time lucky for the Catalans as they head into the Champions League’s quarter-finals for a record 11th successive year. Roma, having scraped past Shakhtar Donetsk on the away goals rule in the round of 16, look likely to go the same way as Chelsea, the team they pipped to top spot in their group but who were eventually humbled 4-1 on aggregate by Barça in the first knockout round.
Lionel Messi has been injured of late, but typically the man who destroyed Chelsea to reach 100 Champions League goals came off the bench and scored a brilliant late equaliser against Sevilla on Saturday to salvage a 2-2 draw and preserve Barcelona’s unbeaten record in La Liga. He will doubtless start against the Giallorossi – and again frighten the opposition defenders to death each and every time he takes possession of the football.
This is Roma’s first Champions League quarter-final for ten years. They will give it their best shot at the Camp Nou, but it is unlikely to be a happy experience.
Prediction: Roma to defend, Barcelona to attack – and score enough goals to make the second leg all but academic. 3-0
Comments