It looks as if the 2018 UEFA Champions League final, to be staged on the evening of Saturday 26 May in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, will be a repeat of the 1981 European Cup final in Paris, with Liverpool taking on Real Madrid.
The Reds and the Whites both go into this week’s semi-final second legs in a position of considerable strength, with Liverpool taking a 5-2 lead over Roma to the Italian capital and, 24 hours earlier, Madrid hosting Bayern Munich for the second year running with a 2-1 first-leg advantage.
If this season’s competition has taught us anything, however, it’s that no tie is over after the first leg and that nothing can be taken for granted. While Liverpool and Madrid are both entitled to feel confident of seeing the job through following last week’s results, they will also be a little nervous. Strange things have happened in the 2017/18 Champions League, and Roma and Bayern will be doing their utmost to ensure that there is at least one more tale of the unexpected to be told.
Here are my previews of this week’s decisive second legs:
Real Madrid (2) v Bayern Munich (1)
The first leg of this tie was a massive let-down. The most frequently played fixture in the history of European football, it failed to match previous clashes between the titans of German and Spanish football, producing very little in the way of either quality or spectacle, the three goals all stemming from defensive ineptitude.
Neither team played well, and while Madrid were doubtless delighted at the outcome, the unconvincing nature of the holders’ smash-and-grab victory – even Cristiano Ronaldo had a lacklustre evening – combined with the knowledge that Bayern can surely not play as poorly again at the Bernabéu suggests that the tie is far from over.
Both of Madrid’s goals, clinical left-footed finishes from Marcelo and Marco Asensio, came against the run of play, and if you factor in last season’s quarter-final between the same teams – when Madrid also won 2-1 at the Allianz-Arena but then lost by the same scoreline in the regulation 90 minutes at home before some ridiculously favourable officiating allowed them to romp through extra time against their ten-man visitors and eventually take the tie 6-3 on aggregate – I’d say there is a lot of football still to be played before this tie is won and lost.
Madrid’s knockout phase results away from home this season have been fantastic – winning at PSG, Juventus and now Bayern – but they were woeful at home to Juve, needing that contentious last-gasp Ronaldo penalty to spare their blushes and win the tie, and Bayern will surely sense, probe and exploit that home-ground frailty as they seek revenge for the injustice of last year’s exit.
A big spoke in the wheel of Bayern’s ambition, though, is the absence of several main men through injury, Jérôme Boateng and Arjen Robben having joined Manuel Neuer, Arturo Vidal and Kingsley Coman in the sick bay after pulling up with muscular injuries in the first leg. They need other stars to shine, but Thomas Müller and Robert Lewandowski were horribly out of form last time out, with only the evergreen Franck Ribéry causing the Madrid defence any significant discomfort.
Unlike against Juventus, when he was suspended, Madrid will be led out at the Bernabéu by the reassuring figure of Sergio Ramos, the man of the match in Munich. But Keylor Navas is currently saddled by the adjective that goalkeepers most dread – dodgy – and several others are either not currently trusted by coach Zinedine Zidane (Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema) or just not delivering (Isco, Toni Kroos).
The game is set up for more Champions League edge-of-the-seat drama. Let’s just hope it’s a big improvement – in all aspects – on the first leg.
Prediction: I don’t see Madrid giving their fans an anxiety-free evening by running away with this. It’ll be another close scrape but they’ll do just enough to get through. 2-2 (Madrid 4-3 on aggregate)
Liverpool v Roma
Five-nil up and cruising with ten minutes to go in the first leg, Liverpool surely can’t blow this. It will be the comeback of all European comebacks if Roma reprise their quarter-final ‘miracle’ against Barcelona. They need another 3-0 win. Even 4-1 (the score they registered at home to Chievo at the weekend) will do. But Liverpool haven’t lost any European game this season, home or away, and at Anfield they were so superior to Roma for 80 minutes that you almost felt embarrassed for the visiting coach Eusebio Di Francesco, whose preposterous, suicidal tactics gave the impression that he had never seen Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool play – or, heaven forbid (I’m afraid it did cross my cynical mind at one stage), had been instructed to ‘throw’ the game.
But, then again, Klopp’s Liverpool, while magical going forward, are always prone to offer the opposition a goal or two at the other end, and the mood at Anfield was very different at the final whistle than it had been before Edin Džeko and Diego Perotti scored those two away goals – or, to go back a bit earlier (to the 74th minute to be precise), before the brilliant ex-Giallorosso, two-goal Mohamed Salah, was withdrawn from the fray to a standing ovation with a place in the final seemingly already under lock and key.
Was Klopp guilty of complacency by taking off his star performer so prematurely? The answer will be revealed at the end of proceedings in the Stadio Olimpico. The chances are the German’s misdeed will be forgiven and forgotten, for it is difficult to imagine that the Merseysiders will draw a blank in Rome – or indeed score fewer goals than Roma eventually managed against those tiring legs at Anfield. Liverpool could only draw 0-0 at home to relegation-bound Stoke on Saturday, with Salah having a rare off-day, but that was akin to a practice match and is unlikely to have a bearing on Wednesday night’s outcome.
Roma’s late goals in the first leg mean that the Olimpico will be a cauldron of noise and excitement for the return. Di Francesco’s men will have no option but to throw caution to the wind (you could say they did that – recklessly – in the first leg). If they open the scoring, it’s game on and the recent memories of Barcelona will stir up local passions to fever pitch. If, on the other hand, Liverpool draw first blood, Roma may well fold like they did at Anfield. Anything is possible.
Prediction: Liverpool will go into the game still psychologically damaged by the frustration of letting Roma back into the tie, but their three-goal advantage should be sufficient to protect them from everlasting ignominy. 3-2 (Liverpool 7-5 on aggregate)
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