The Europa League returns on Thursday evening after a three-week break with the first legs of the quarter-finals. It’s a strong-looking last-eight field, with only one of the teams – European debutants RB Leipzig – having never previously appeared in a European final and just one of the other seven – Salzburg – having never won a major European trophy (though they did pick up the UEFA Youth League bauble last year under their current manager, Marco Rose).
Atlético Madrid, the only one of the remaining teams to have won all four of their knockout phase encounters so far, are the clear favourites to win the Europa League for the third time (after previous triumphs in 2009/10 and 2011/12), but paradoxically they are the sole club left in the field that look certain to qualify for the group stage of next season’s Champions League via their domestic league position, and with that same prize awaiting the Europa League winners, it goes without saying that all of the other seven will be desperate to see Diego Simeone’s side depart from the competition.
Sporting, led by two-time Europa League final loser (while at Benfica) Jorge Jesus, get first crack at Atlético this week in the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, from where they will do well to escape with their semi-final prospects still intact. For Arsenal, out of the top-four reckoning in the Premier League, victory in the Europa League means everything in what has been another season of substandard domestic achievement, but CSKA, like the Gunners, have suddenly hit a patch of good form, which they will hope to export to the Emirates Stadium.
Elsewhere, Leipzig, recent Bundesliga victors against Bayern Munich, have another big scalp in their sights as they bid to send former European champions Marseille the way of previous victims Napoli and Zenit. Likewise, their ‘sister’ club from Austria, Salzburg, have every reason to feel confident as they journey south to Rome to take on Lazio buoyed by an unbeaten run in all competitions of 35 matches.
Four fascinating fixtures await. Here’s my take on what might happen.
Leipzig v Marseille
Both clubs are doing reasonably well on the domestic front, with Leipzig fourth in the Bundesliga and Marseille third in Ligue 1, but European pedigree would suggest that the inaugural UEFA Champions League winners of 1992/93 have the edge. Rudi Garcia’s side were excellent against Athletic Bilbao in the last round, winning both games with skipper Dimitri Payet sparkling again as in his West Ham pomp. Leipzig also performed classily to overcome Zenit, with Germany’s prospective World Cup striker, Timo Werner, playing a starring role. I expect the match – and the tie as a whole – to be extremely tight.
Prediction: 2-1
Arsenal v CSKA Moscow
Doomed to finish lower than ever before in the Premier League on Arsène Wenger’s watch, Arsenal need to succeed Manchester United on to the Europa League throne to save their season – and, who knows, to keep their long-serving French manager in his job. The Gunners have emerged from a mini-crisis to win their last four matches, three of them at home, and although CSKA have won all three of their Russian league games since the spring resumption as well as the second leg of their round of 16 tie at Lyon, it would be a major shock to Arsenal’s system if they failed to win the first leg. (On a personal level, I’m hoping that Ahmed Musa, who is on loan to CSKA from Leicester, where he has become a bit of a joke figure, has a good game – and maybe even scores, as he did in Lyon – because when he made his home debut for the Foxes against the Gunners as a late substitute back in August 2016, he was denied a clear penalty after being taken out by an Arsenal defender near the goal-line in the final minute of what ended up as a 0-0 draw. Yes, I remember it well and it still rankles.)
Prediction: 3-1
Atlético Madrid v Sporting
Second in La Liga and all but guaranteed Champions League football for a sixth successive season in 2018/19, Atlético have a ‘free hit’ at the Europa League, which makes a team containing Antoine Griezmann, Saúl Ñíguez, Diego Costa et al even more dangerous than normal. Sporting lost in the ‘quarry’ at Braga on Saturday to finish off their hopes of a first Portuguese title in 16 years – Benfica and Porto are now six and five points, respectively, above them with six games left. Additionally, the club’s poor away form in Europe leaves little scope for the possibility of an upset in the Spanish capital.
Prediction: 2-0
Lazio v Salzburg
With a 6-2 win against Benevento on Easter Saturday, Lazio became the top-scoring team in Serie A this season, with 73 goals – three more than table-topping Juventus. However, despite that and the 26-goal individual contribution of Ciro Immobile (whose recent misses for Italy against England at Wembley were wholly uncharacteristic) they remain outside the Champions League qualifying berths in fifth place. Salzburg, on the other hand, have a fifth successive Austrian Bundesliga title virtually in their pocket and can concentrate fully on trying to prolong their extraordinary unbeaten run in European competition to 20 matches. I’ve a nasty feeling, though, that it will finally end in Rome.
Prediction: 2-1
Comments