All four of the clubs hosting the second legs of the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals this Thursday evening must overcome a first-leg deficit if they are to make further progress in a competition that provides its winners with not one but two glittering prizes – the trophy itself, plus a free pass to the group stage of next season’s UEFA Champions League.
My predictions on these blogs have been erratic, to say the least, but I did forecast last week that all four first legs would be won by the home teams, and that is what happened, with Arsenal, Atlético Madrid, Lazio and European debutants RB Leipzig – the lone representatives from Europe’s Big Four nations – all doing the business in front of their fans and putting themselves in control of their tie.
I watched the Arsenal v CSKA Moscow first leg (I’m not sure why UEFA have all four Europa League quarter-finals start at the same time rather than stagger them with two separate kick-off times as they do in previous rounds; they would never countenance such a thing in the Champions League, where there are only ever two matches at most simultaneously staged during the entire knockout phase) but will probably tune in – initially at least – to the Marseille v Leipzig encounter this week as it is the only one in which the home side are just one goal in arrears. Marseille have a chance of turning that one around, but I am far less confident in the ability of CSKA, Sporting and Salzburg to do likewise in their respective ties.
Here’s my game-by-game preview with accompanying predictions:
Marseille (0) v Leipzig (1)
Marseille have won six of their seven European home games this season, drawing the other, and the Stade Vélodrome factor suggests that Rudi Garcia’s side have what it takes to stage a famous second-leg comeback and reach a European semi-final for the first time in 14 years. That said, they have failed to win their last two home fixtures in Ligue 1, but Leipzig will not be travelling to the south of France in the best of spirits having ended a seven-game unbeaten run in all competitions by losing 4-1 at home to Bayer Leverkusen on Monday night – a result that relegates them to sixth place in the Bundesliga. It will be tight and tense, but I see Leipzig scoring, probably through first-leg match-winner Timo Werner, which will give Dimitri Payet and co a mountain to climb.
Prediction: 2-1 (aggregate 2-2; Leipzig on away goal)
CSKA Moscow (1) v Arsenal (4)
The overriding impression from the first leg of this tie was how slow and fragile CSKA’s defence is – hardly a surprise given the creaking limbs of the three golden oldies in their back three, Sergei Ignashevich (38) and the Berezutski twins (35). Arsenal made them pay with four first-half goals – one special one from Aaron Ramsey, two good ones and one from a penalty erroneously awarded by the goal-line official (could he not see that Mesut Özil never had control of the ball and just leaned into the defender on his way down? It was only a couple of yards away from him, for heaven’s sake).
The Gunners have never won in four previous trips to Moscow but they don’t need to end that run now. Russia’s new golden boy Aleksandr Golovin scored a great free kick at the Emirates, and even Ahmed Musa caused Arsenal’s backline a few jitters with his pace, but there is insufficient quality in the CSKA ranks to enable them to stage the biggest comeback in their European history. It should be an easy ride for Arsène Wenger’s men into the semi-finals.
Prediction: 1-1 (aggregate 2-5)
Sporting (0) v Atlético Madrid (2)
Competition favourites Atlético are in command of this tie after goals from Koke (after just 22 seconds) and Antoine Griezmann (the 500th by a Spanish team in the Europa League proper), but Sporting had plenty of chances to score in Madrid, notably with the last kick of the game when Fredy Montero blazed wildly over a gaping net. That miss probably ended the Lisbon side’s chances of going through, because Diego Simeone’s defensively resolute outfit are unlikely to give Jorge Jesus’s side too many opportunities like that in Lisbon. One away goal should comfortably see Atlético home.
Prediction: 1-1 (aggregate 1-3)
Salzburg (2) v Lazio (4)
Salzburg’s 35-game unbeaten run in all competitions ended last week in Rome as a result of two late Lazio breakaway goals – the second of them from Ciro Immobile, who is now, with seven strikes, the leading marksman remaining in the competition (and one behind Athletic Bilbao’s Aritz Aduriz) – and, as so often happens, they followed that immediately with another defeat, against LASK Linz in the Austrian Bundesliga. They will certainly recover from the latter and win another domestic title, but can they make up the ground in Europe? Lazio are in good nick at the moment – no defeats in seven matches and four wins in their last five – and, unlike several Serie A sides who have entered this competition in the past, are deadly serious about becoming Italy’s first Europa League winners.
As in Marseille, Moscow and Lisbon, I fear the home fans will end up disappointed.
Prediction: 1-1 (aggregate 3-5)
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